The latest University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll provides yet more evidence of a historically close election in Texas, with Democratic candidates enjoying razor-thin polling leads over their more well-funded Republican opponents amidst a clear partisan enthusiasm gap favoring Democrats. The poll was conducted September 25 to October 5, 2026, with trial ballot results presented among a sample of 861 likely voters (LV), producing a margin of error of +/- 3.34 percentage points.

In the trial ballot for the election to replace John Cornyn in the U.S. Senate, Attorney General Ken Paxton trails State Representative James Talarico 47% to 50%, with 1% preferring Libertarian Party candidate Ted Brown, and 2% preferring a non-specified “someone else.” Paxton defeated Cornyn by a wide margin in the hotly contested GOP primary that was decided in a May runoff election. Talarico’s 3-percentage-point lead is within the poll’s margin of error, and is similar to the polling leads the Austin-area legislator has enjoyed in most of the non-partisan public polling conducted since Labor Day.

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