“A new survey of Texas Hispanic likely voters, conducted for The Cook Political Report and TelevisaUnivision, finds the Democratic candidates in the state’s Senate and gubernatorial contests leading their GOP opponents by a 2-1 margin with the key voting bloc, as President Donald Trump’s job approval rating in the state has sunk to just 33% with a demographic group that swung hard in his direction in 2024.
The poll, conducted August 26 —September 3 by Democratic firm Hart Research and Republican firm OnMessage Inc, also included an oversample of Hispanic voters in the Rio Grande Valley/South Texas, the centerpiece of Trump’s 2024 coalition and the home to three marquee House races (in TX-15, TX-28 and TX-34). In that subsample, Democrats enjoyed a 14 point advantage over Republicans, 53% to 39%, on the generic ballot.
Hispanic voters in Texas understand the important role they play in Texas elections. Seven in ten said they think Hispanics in the state have a lot or some political influence, including 41% who said they have “real political power” in Texas. Moreover, two-thirds said they’d like candidates to conduct outreach in the Hispanic community in Spanish, and 69% said they believe candidates signal that they “want to earn my vote” when they appear on Spanish-language media.
Democrats’ strong showing among Hispanics in the Lone Star state is a significant shift from 2024, when Trump carried Hispanic voters by 10 points and Republican Sen. Ted Cruz carried them by three.
In this cycle’s Senate contest, Democratic state Rep. James Talarico leads Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton among Hispanic voters by 63% to 30%, including a whopping 73% of self-described independents.
And in her race against incumbent GOP Gov. Greg Abbott, who won 40% of Hispanics in 2022, Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa leads among Hispanic voters, 60% to 33%.
Much of the shift in support to Democrats is driven by a fracturing of the coalition that supported Trump in 2024.
- 18% of Texas Hispanics who voted for Trump in 2024 disapprove of the job he is doing.
- 19% of Hispanic Trump voters say they support Talarico over Paxton.
- 22% of Hispanic Trump voters do not support a Republican House candidate in a generic trial heat.
- Just 60% of Hispanic Trump voters believe the Republican Party does a better job standing up for the Hispanic community, compared to 91% of Harris voters who believe that Democrats do a better job.
The poll offers a nuanced view of Hispanic voters’ views on immigration, but one that shows a backlash to the administration’s harshest policies. Almost two-thirds of Hispanic voters in the state said they would be less likely to vote for a candidate who supports Trump’s deportation policy. ICE is also deeply unpopular among Hispanics in the state, with 61% viewing the agency unfavorably, including 54% very unfavorably. Even so, Hispanic voters in the state are evenly divided on their support for a candidate who advocates for abolishing ICE (49% support compared to 44% oppose). And, in the Rio Grande Valley, the area of the state closest to the Mexican border, opinions of the U.S. Border Patrol are positive (+19).
But it is the economy, not immigration, that is the most important issue for Hispanic voters in the state. By a two-one-margin, these voters rate economic concerns as more important to them in this election than immigration or ICE (29% to 15%).
There are some warning signs for Democrats. These voters choose messaging about “preventing biological men from competing in women’s sports or using their locker rooms” over a more progressive message of “treating individuals with compassion and respect” by more than a 20 point margin. Even so, while Republicans are certain to litigate the issue of transgender athletes in advertising, the issue was only mentioned by a handful of respondents in an open-ended question about the most important issue determining their vote.
The live-caller & text-to-web survey of 1000 Hispanic likely voters was conducted August 26-September 3, with a statewide margin of error of +/-3.7%. The oversample of Hispanic voters in three Rio Grande Valley congressional districts (TX-15, TX-28, and TX-34) included 414 voters and has a margin of error of +/- 4.8%. The poll was conducted in both English and Spanish.”